AFC East action here as the New York Jets host the Miami Dolphins. Miami had been rolling for a while but their Tua Tagovailoa honeymoon got abruptly ended last week as they were upset by the Broncos. The Jets on the other hand are still looking for their first win of the season, and are underdogs of about a touchdown here at home.
Dolphins Come Down To Earth
The Miami Dolphins have been arguably the best story in football this season. After years of irrelevancy, Brian Flores has lifted his team up from the gutter to become a serious playoff contender. They had been on fire recently and everything was running smoothly with Tua Tagovailoa taking over under center, until last week that is. What had turned into a huge love-fest in Miami was abruptly ended by the Denver Broncos. Tagovailoa struggled mightily in that game, and was even benched by Ryan Fitzpatrick during it. Tagovailoa will start here, but that game was very troublesome.
He had never exactly been lighting it up as a passer, and I think defenses are starting to catch up to what OC Chan Gailey is doing with him. Jets DC Gregg Williams likes to get aggressive and send lots at the quarterback, so Tagovailoa will need to be much sharper here. He took six sacks against Denver last week and looked like he had no idea what to do in the face of pressure. Tagovailoa is averaging only 6.2 yards per attempt through his first handful of appearances, and it's undeniable the offense moved better with Fitzpatrick. Their backfield is also a bit of a mess as they average only 3.6 yards per carry, so a lot will be on Tagovailoa's shoulders here.
Jets Improving?
The New York Jets are still without a win and this season has been nothing short of a disaster in every sense of the word. That much is indisputable. But quietly, it looks like they might've found something the past couple of weeks. Adam Gase's offense has suddenly found some life, as they've now put up at least 27 points in back to back weeks. It also looks like Sam Darnold is going to return from his shoulder injury for this one, which could give the team an energy boost they desperately need. With Breshad Perriman, Jamison Crowder, and now rookie Denzel Mims coming along, the group of skill position players isn't quite as bad as you might believe.
Mims, the talented second-rounder from Baylor, missed the first half of the season but now has at least 62 yards in back to back games. Expect him to take on an even larger role down the stretch. He's a big play threat for Darnold, with a reception of at least 26 yards in three straight contests. This offense desperately needed some explosiveness. New York's secondary is a mess at the moment, but they could get bailed out in this spot since Tagovailoa hasn't shown any ability to push the ball down the field in his brief career. If they can keep everything in front, they won't be all that bad.
Notable Trends
Jets are:
- 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a winning road record
- 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a home underdog
Dolphins are:
- 8-20 ATS in their last 28 games on fieldturf
- 9-19-1 ATS in their last 29 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game
