The New England Patriots will travel to NRG Stadium in Houston to face the Texans on Sunday afternoon. The Pats are coming off a 23-17 victory against Baltimore and are riding a two-game winning streak. The Texans are coming off a 10-7 loss in Cleveland during a game where there was inclement weather that affected the game plan. Cam Newton has been solid as a dual-threat option at the quarterback position as they continue to focus on the running game for their offense. He is sitting at 12 total touchdowns (three passing and nine rushing) with seven interceptions on the season. Deshaun Watson has been having a good last month of games as he has thrown for nine touchdowns and zero interceptions. Only issue is the team is 1-3 in that span.
These two offenses haven’t really clicked on both fronts while their defenses are giving up a lot of yardage. Both teams have underperformed from where they expected as New England is sitting at 4-5 and are on the outside looking into a Wild Card spot while Houston is 2-7 and can’t write off the season as they do not own their first two picks in the next draft. Both teams need a victory in this game but what are the factors that are prevalent in this matchup?
Cam You Pass Better?
When Cam Newton came to New England late in the offseason, people were dreaming of how Bill Belichick can run an offense with a dual-threat quarterback. However, Newton’s passing ability is still there but isn’t producing points. Last week against the Ravens was Cam Newton’s first passing touchdown since Week 3 against the Raiders and he hasn’t had a game with more than one passing touchdown since December 2, 2018. You can see it with how teams are preparing to play against the Patriots this season, not respecting the passing game and selling out for the run.
Houston could be a great all-around matchup for Cam Newton as they allow 422.8 total yards per game, which is the fourth-highest in the NFL. However, their passing defense isn’t as bad but since Newton and this New England offense is built on the running attack and less focused on the passing attack, the fact that the Texans allow 167.4 rushing yards is something Belichick should exploit. Last week against the Cleveland Browns where they essentially knew they were running the ball, Houston still allowed 231 rushing yards so the ability for Newton to have his best game as a Patriot is on the table.
The Duke of Running?
Duke Johnson could have a major role in the offense in this game as David Johnson will miss the game while he is on the Injured Reserve recovering from a concussion he suffered early in the game against the Jaguars. This is the second game (third if you count the Jags game since David Johnson was injured very early) that Duke Johnson will be the primary running back for the Texans. He hasn’t seen many rushing attempts but has a respectable yards per carry. So far this year, he has 48 carries for 149 yards and a touchdown. Last game, he went for 54 yards on 14 carries.
New England has a main focus on their defense, even after many of their COVID opt-outs were on that side of the ball. They are giving up 129.2 rushing yards per game this season but that number should be lower considerably this week. Going against a run-heavy team last week in the Baltimore Ravens, they only allowed 115 yards on the ground in 28 attempts. If the defense can control the running game as well as they did last week, the Texans will most likely be in trouble.
Notable Trends
From Covers.com
- Houston: 4-10 ATS in their last 14 home games
- Houston: 2-8 ATS in their 10 games overall
- New England: 22-8 ATS vs a team with a losing record
- New England: 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games vs a team with a losing home record
