The NFL season is winding down, and we are seeing the playoff picture take shape. This time of year is always interesting for bettors as team situations are really dependent on their chances of making the playoffs. Detroit was eliminated from playoff contention last week, and with a Bears loss, the Buccaneers can clinch a playoff spot this week.
What is really troublesome for both of these teams and really every team is injuries that start to pile up late in the season. For teams like the Buccaneers, who are still in contention but haven’t clinched, they still need to win games while not pushing injured players. For instance, Ronald Jones II will more than likely sit out this week with his broken finger, and so will Jason Pierre-Paul out with a knee injury.
(Late line movements and injury reports were updated on Friday evening.)
Line Movements:
There has been very little movement in favor of the visitors in regards to the line in this contest. This game opened as the Buccaneers as a 9.5-point favorite. As of Friday evening, Tampa Bay remains as a 9.5 or 10-point favorite in the contest at the majority of sportsbooks. 64 percent of the bets ATS are backing Tampa Bay, on the road, giving the points in this matchup of NFC teams playing for different things in the final weeks of the season.
The over/under has stayed relatively consistent in this contest as well. After opening at 54 points, the total sits at 54 or 54.5 points at the majority of sportsbooks for this one. A solid majority, 57 percent, of the wagers on the total in this contest are of the mindset that this one ends up going over the total.
Game-time Weather: Ford Field has a roof on the structure, making this an indoor contest. That means 68 degrees, no wind and no precipitation to worry about.
Tampa Bay Will Look to Tom Brady to Lead Them
This Tampa Bay offense has been solid all year long; while they have had a few hiccups here and there, they have things clicking right now. The transition at quarterback this year has actually gone more smoothly than expected. There have been rough patches, but way less than I thought there would be. The Bucs will be without starting RB Ronald Jones II this week, which is a huge blow to their running attack. They still have Leonard Fournette to manage a bulk of the carries, though. While the run game is important, I think it will be Tom Brady and the passing attack that will attempt to lead the Bucs to victory in this one. Tampa Bay is currently averaging 28.6 PPG (7th) while averaging 268.4 YPG through the air (6th).
On defense, Tampa Bay will be without star LB Jason Pierre-Paul, but I think they will still be able to hold the Detroit offense. This defense has actually been pretty efficient this season, allowing only 22.9 PPG (12th) while giving up 333.1 total YPG (6th). The Bucs' defense is solid against the rush, only allowing 77.8 YPG (1st).
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Injury Report:
OUT: DL Khalil Davis, S Justin Evans, WR John Franklin, TE O.J. Howard, RB Ronald Jones Jr., RB T.J. Logan, T Brad Seaton, C A.Q. Shipley, DL Vita Vea
Doubtful: DB Carlton Davis
Questionable: LB Jason Pierre-Paul, S Antoine Winfield Jr.
It All Comes Down to Matthew Stafford
Ultimately the only chance Detroit has of keeping this game competitive is Matthew Stafford, who is playing through a rib injury and is listed as questionable for this game. It would make more sense if they sit Stafford as they can obtain a higher draft pick with a loss. The Lion’s offense heavily relies on the passing attack averaging 264.5 YPG (7th) while putting up 23.9 PPG (19th). If Stafford plays, Detroit will have an opportunity to take advantage of a weak Bucs passing defense, but again I don’t see why he would play. This is unfortunate because this would cause the Lions to rely on their rush attack, which currently averages only 92.6 YPG (30th).
Detroit’s defense is one of the worst in the league. They allow opponents to score 31.1 PPG (32nd) and allow 401.4 total YPG. This team cannot stop the run, and they definitely cannot stop the passing attack. I see Tom Brady having a huge day against this Lion’s secondary. I actually have high expectations for Leornard Forurnette in this one too.
Another issue for Detroit crept up on Thursday. Interim head coach Darrell Bevell, who started out the season as the offensive coordinator, will not coach this game due to COVID-19 protocols, according to a press release from the Lions on Thursday. Robert Prince, the wide receivers coach, will take over head coaching duties. Sean Ryan will take over as the play caller. He is the quarterbacks coach and has no experience calling plays.
Detroit Lions Injury Report:
OUT: WR Geronimo Allison, DT John Atkins, FB Nick Bawden, OL Russell Bodine, DT Jashon Cornell, OL Tyrell Crosby, DE Trey Flowers, WR Kenny Golladay, DE Everson Griffen, DL Da’Shawn Hand, CB Tony McRae, CB Jeff Okudah, CB Desmond Trufant
Questionable: LB Jamie Collins Sr., T Taylor Decker, CB Mike Ford, S Jayron Kearse, K Matt Prater, C Frank Ragnow, CB Darryl Roberts, DT Danny Shelton, QB Matthew Stafford, T Halapoulivaati Vaitai
Notable Trends
Found on Covers.com
- Lions are 8-17 ATS last 25 overall.
- Lions are 6-13 ATS last 19 as an underdog.
- Tampa Bay is 10-3-2 ATS last 15 in December.
- Road team is 6-1 ATS last 7 in series.
