The Cincinnati Reds could find themselves out of the wildcard chase with a loss in either of the final two games against the Cubs. After a 3-0 series opening loss, the Reds fell to 3.5 games back of the final wildcard spot (San Francisco), and rank behind the Rockies, Brewers, and Mets. While those five teams are closely compressed in the standings, the Reds are in a tailspin, having lost two games in a row going into Wednesday’s matchup. Tonight’s game is a winnable one, however, with a favorable pitching matchup for the Reds.
Meanwhile, the Cubs are on cruise control in first place in the NL Central, three games ahead of second place St. Louis. Chicago is a virtual lock for the playoffs, and are now playing for seeding. Currently, the Cubs occupy the second seed in the playoffs, but are just half a game ahead of the third seed Atlanta Braves. As long as the Cubs clinch the NL Central title, they can be no lower than a third seed in the expanded playoff structure. The Cubs remaining schedule does look favorable for them to stay in first place, with seven games combined between the Pirates and the Brewers. Interleague matchups with the Indians, Twins, and White Sox also remain on the schedule for the Cubs.
Head-to-head, the Cubs have taken five of the eight games going into Wednesday’s contest. Tonight’s game is the final regular season game between the NL Central rivals.
Gray Gets His Shot at the Cubs
The Reds lineup has been a surprise this season, but not in a good way. The expectation was that Joey Votto, Nick Castellanos, and Eugenio Suarez would anchor a lineup that could support a strong rotation. But both have struggled, and over the past seven games, so has the team in general. The Reds are slashing just .188/.285/.389 over the past seven games. That average does not figure to improve much as the Reds hit just .194 on the road this season. Those struggles carried over on Tuesday, as the Reds were blanked 3-0 by the Cubs.
Eugenio Suarez has finally started to come around, although it may be a little late in the season. Over the past seven games, Suarez has an OPS of 1.136 with five home runs. Against right handed pitchers, Jesse Winker has hit .292 with three homers, and Kyle Farmer has a .313/.353/.375 slash line on the road this season.
Sonny Gray is hoping that he can get some run support from his struggling lineup. Gray has been solid this season, except for his last start which was a disaster. Against the Cardinals, Gray did not make it out of the first inning, giving up six runs on five hits. Earlier this season, Gray struck out 11 Cubs in 6.2 innings, allowing just two runs on one hit in a 12-7 win. Gray strikes out 11.9 batters per nine innings, and is going against a Cubs lineup that has struck out the second most times in the bigs this season.
Cubs Hitters Look to Break Through versus Gray
If the Cubs are going to beat Sonny Gray, they will have to find a way to generate some offense in support of starter Adbert Alzolay. The Cubs are hitting .243 with eight home runs over the past seven games, but Chicago hits below its season average at home, slashing .209/.319/.382 as a team with a .260 BABIP.
Wilson Contreras entered the series on a roll, hitting .455/.520/.636 with a homer over the past seven games. Ian Happ’s home splits (.304, 12 HR) and righty splits (.316/.427/.765 11 HR) lead the team. In the series opener, the Cubs managed just four hits, but opposite field triples by Cameron Bote and Javier Baez provided enough offense behind a brilliant performance by Alec Mills.
With Jose Quintana and Jon Lester trying to work themselves back from the IL, the Cubs turn to rookie Adbert Alzolay to close out the series. Alzolay has made two starts this season, both of which came against the Cardinals. His last start lasted 2.2 innings, and he gave up two hits and two runs while walking five and striking out four. Alzolay did face the Reds out of the bullpen earlier this season, giving up a hit and a walk while striking out two in one inning of work.
Notable Trends
- Chicago: 3-3 in last six games
- Chicago: N/A
- Cincinnati: 3-6 in last nine games
- Cincinnati: N/A
